Current statistics 2024/05: Referendum on the urban-regional railroad

A total of 52.4 percent of voters voted in favor of the StUB being built on the basis of the existing plans.

If one examines the voting behavior in the referendum in relation to social structure characteristics in the voting districts, one at least obtains indications of the voting behavior of individual population groups. However, these should not be interpreted as cause-and-effect relationships.

Here are the most important results at a glance:

There is a correlation with the age of the population: the greater the proportion of young adults aged 18 to under 35 in the voting districts, the greater the proportion of StUB supporters. With regard to the proportion of senior citizens aged 65 and over, an inverse correlation can be observed: the higher the proportion of older people in a constituency, the lower the level of support for the urban-rural railroad.

There is also a correlation with the school-leaving qualifications of the population: In areas with a high proportion of primary, lower secondary or intermediate school-leavers in the adult population, approval of the StUB is significantly lower than in constituencies with a high proportion of people with A-levels.

If the voting behavior is linked to individual results of the 2023 citizens' survey, a dependency on the means of transport usually used becomes apparent: In the voting districts where the car is used more frequently, there are significantly lower approval ratings for the StUB. In contrast, the proportion of StUB supporters is above average in areas where the bus connection in the residential area also has high satisfaction ratings.

If we look at the results of the referendum in the strongholds of the individual parties in the European elections, we see the highest approval ratings in the strongholds of the Greens, the Volt Party and the Left Party. The Stadt-Umland-Bahn met with below-average approval in the strongholds of the Free Voters, the CSU and the AfD.

The full report with further evaluations is available for download here: Statistik aktuell 2024.05 Referendum on the Stadt-Umland-Bahn on June 9, 2024